Daily Forex News and Watchlist: AUD/USD
Forex traders are in for a busy couple of trading sessions as the Fed is expected to raise rates while Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are due to print top-tier economic releases.
Will today’s events bring AUD/USD firmly back to its weeks-long uptrend?
News AUD/USD: Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at CAD/JPY’s retracement
opportunities after busting above a resistance zone. Be sure to check out if it’s still a
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index slumps from 54.3 to -39.3 in March
Canada housing starts rise 8% to 247,256 in February
US producer prices climbed 10% from a year ago in February, monthly increase at 0.8%
after 1.0% uptick in January.
New York manufacturing unexpectedly shrinks from 3.1 to -11.8, the lowest since 2020
Lagarde: ECB won’t raise rates until some time after net bond buying ends
AU Westpac leading index rises from -0.5% to -0.25% in February
Japan posts bigger-than-expected trade gap of 1.03T JPY as energy imports jump in February
Fitch: Russia to ‘default’ if dollar coupons paid in rubles due today
U.S. officials expect POTUS Biden to announce $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine
Zelensky says Ukrainian and Russian positions becoming more ‘realistic’
U.K.’s Boris Johnson visits Saudi Arabia and UAE, seeking more oil output
China share surge boosts Asian equity gauges ahead of Fed
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
Canada’s inflation reports at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. retail sales data at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. EIA crude oil inventories at 2:30 pm GMT
FOMC statement at 6:00 pm GMT
Fed Chairman Powell’s presser at 6:30 pm GMT
NZ quarterly GDP at 9:45 pm GMT
AU employment numbers at 12:30 am GMT (Mar 17)
RBA’s bulletin at 12:30 am GMT (Mar 17)
Audusd analysis h4
News AUD/USD: The biggest market mover in the next couple of hours will be the FOMC statement where members are expected to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points.
Markets will also pay attention to the central bank’s inflation, growth, and interest rate expectations to see if Fed members will plan to step up their rate hikes from 3 back in December to 4 or 5 for all of 2022.
Of course, the Fed won’t be sunshine and daisies about its rate hike. Remember that members are pressured to raise rates mainly due to high inflation not being as transitory as they expected.
With Ukraine’s war and the threat of another spike in coronavirus cases, Fed Chairman Powell and his team will want to be less hawkish in their statements.
News and Watchlist AUD/USD
As you can see, AUD is sporting a Double Bottom pattern on the 4-hour time frame near the 200 SMA. More importantly, the pattern’s “neckline” lines up with a trend line support that’s been around since early February.
Traders are already in a risk-taking mood after Chinese authorities have pledged to boost the economy amidst rising coronavirus cases and fresh lockdown measures.
If Powell convinces markets of its cautious stance and today’s FOMC event inspires a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-dollar environment, then AUD/USD could break above its consolidation.
Australia’s labor market data – scheduled in the Asian session – is also expected to print another set of upbeat numbers. If the anti-dollar, pro-risk theme extends to Asian session trading, then we could see AUD/USD return to its swing-term uptrend.