Selling the Retrace in AUD/USD, With the RBA Not Looking to Hike Interest Rates Until 2024


The AUD/USD had been one of the most bullish pairs since the coronavirus started in March last year. But, it turned bearish in February, and the restrictions in Australia; due to the coronavirus, have been hurting the AUD further. Now, this pair looks quite bearish. and we have been selling the retraces higher.

In the last few sessions, we have seen another retrace higher. but the 200 SMA (gray) held as resistance on the H4 chart. The price formed a doji – which is a bearish reversing signal – below it, and it is now reversing down, although we did see it pierce above the 20 SMA for a brief moment. But, that has been the case throughout this month for the AUD/USD, and the price reversed back down, which is also a bearish signal.

The Reserve Bank of Australia RBA has released the minutes of its last meeting, and it seems like they have no plans to raise interest rates, at least until 2024, which is yet another bearish signal. So, we opened a sell signal in AUD/USD, which you can find on our signals page, and now, we are waiting for the reversal.

The AUD/USD; Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Central bank’s scenario is that conditions for rate rise will not be met until 2024.
  • The board committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions.
  • The outbreak of the delta variant has delayed, but not derailed, the recovery.
  • The economy was expected to bounce back as vaccination rates increase and restrictions are eased.
  • The board will continue to review the bond purchase program in light of economic conditions and the health situation.
  • Considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of the recovery; which was likely to be slower than previously experienced.
  • Bank’s bond purchase program is expanding faster; relative to the stock of bonds outstanding. than that of many other central banks.
  • Members continued to emphasize the importance of maintaining lending standards.
  • Progress towards the bank’s goals was likely to take longer and was less assured, given delta.
  • Members recognize that the outbreak of the delta variant is delaying the recovery and has added to the uncertainty about the future.

At the September meeting; the bank reaffirmed its commitment to a ‘taper’ but hedged somewhat by extending the program into the early months of next year.



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