Euro Fundamental Forecast: EUR/USD Clinging on to 1.1000, Inflation Data Nears

March 27, 2022

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EUR/USD PRICE, CHART, AND ANALYSIS

EUR/USD – a confirmed break of 1.1000 will set up a run at 1.0800
Inflation data from the single block may heap pressure on the ECB.

Inflation Data Nears:The ramping up of hawkish Fed rhetoric, and the knock-on move higher in US
Treasury bond yields,
continue to apply downward pressure on EUR/USD with the pair clinging onto the 1.1000 level. Small
moves higher are met with sellers, while any recent dip below the 1.1000 sees buyers reappear to try
and steady the pair. Whether there are bigger forces at play keeping EUR/USD afloat, there will come a
time soon when moves lower will accelerate, due to the widening yield differential between USTS and
Bunds, leaving the recent two year low just above 1.0800 at risk. The Federal Reserve is fully expected
to hike rates by another 150 basis points this year and start reducing its USD9 trillion+ balance sheet,
while the ECB may move rates marginally higher at the end of 2022 if their growth outlook allows.
The yield differential between the 10 year UST and Bund is already +190 basis points in the US
dollar’s favor.

Inflation Data Nears

The latest Euro Zone inflation data are released next week and are expected to show price pressures
continuing to rise across the single block. With the ECB currently unable to tighten monetary policy for
fear of disrupting an already weak economic pick-up, it will be left to ECB board members to try and
jaw bone the single currency higher. This is unlikely to have any medium-to-long term effect if inflation
pushes ever higher. German headline inflation is expected to rise to 6.1% next week, from 5.1% in
February, a level that was last seen in the early 1990s.

EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART – MARCH 25, 2022

Retail trader data show62.12% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.64 to 1.
The number of traders net-long is 1.95% higher than yesterday and 18.00% higher from last week, while
the number of traders net-short is 1.89% lower than yesterday and 0.71% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD
prices may continue to fall.Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination
of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.