EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Reprieve Could be the Calm Before Another Storm
EUR/USD Forecast, RECOMMENDED BY WARREN VENKE TA SG et Your Free EUR Forecast Get My Guide. The announcement about the EU’s debt raising plan has been refuted by the EU’s Timmermans however; markets largely dismissed this; with the Euro pushing; higher today. EUR/USD; is likely to remain subdued ahead; of tomorrows stacked calendar with the ECB’s interest rate decision and U.S. inflation respectively.
EUR/USD Forecast, As mentioned in my analysis yesterday; we could see a shift towards fiscal intervention in attempts to minimize the inflationary impact on EU consumers. This could come in the way of tax cuts; to offset rising commodity prices. Monetary will have minimal effect; on inflationary pressure as supply; constraints are the root cause of the current problem. The graphic below illustrates the expectations by; money markets for a rate hold (92.14%) is almost fully priced in.
ECB RATE HIKE PROBABILITY:
Source: Refinitiv
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
EUR/USD DAILY CHART
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG
EUR/USD Forecast, The daily EUR/USD chart shows the turnaround after a poor open to the trading week with bulls; pushing the pair towards the long-term triangle support; (black). This comes after; positive news around Ukraine giving up the notion of joining NATO and hopefully; decreasing; violence in the region. This being sai; the relief may be short-lived and price action looks to be setting; up for another move lower as tensions are unlikely to dissipate quickly.
Resistance levels:
- 20-day; EMA (purple)
- 1.1000
- Triangle support
Support levels:
- 1.0806
- 1.0636
EUR/USD Forecast, IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA PUSHES BEARISH NARRATIVE
IGCS shows retail traders are currently LONG on EUR/USD; with 69% of traders currently; holding long positions (as of this writing). At Daily; FX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment resulting in a short-term downside bias. EUR/USD BULLISHD at a provided by CHANGE INLONGSSHORTSOIDAILY-15%19%-4%WEEKLY-13%29%0%Learn how to; use Sentiment in your trading; strategy Get My Guide
